Welcome to Good Day, UGA, your one-stop shop for Georgia football news and takes. Check us out every weekday morning for everything you need to know about Georgia football, recruiting, basketball and more.
Georgia projected to make the College Football Playoff
File this under “don’t count your chickens before they hatch,” but Georgia is projected to make the College Football Playoff by multiple media outlets.
First up, we’ll look at the odds given by Bill Connelly of SB Nation’s S&P+. (These aren’t technically projections, but they do give us a good idea of the teams with the best shot to end up in the CFP.) According to S&P+, Georgia has a 62 percent chance to enter conference championship weekend with one loss. Connelly concludes his post by saying the three front-runners for a spot in the CFP are Clemson, Washington and the winner of a potential Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship Game.
Next, let’s take a look at the model created by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight, which “uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants.” (Check here for the full methodology.)
According to the FiveThirtyEight model, Georgia has a 30 percent chance to win the SEC, but a 34 percent chance to make the playoff, giving it the fourth-best odds behind Alabama, Clemson and Washington. Those numbers also indicate there’s a chance Georgia could lose in the SEC Championship Game to Alabama and still make the CFP. For that scenario to play out, though, Georgia would likely need to make it through the regular season undefeated.
Finally, we’ll move away from the model-based approach to predicting the CFP and look at what Jerry Palm of CBS Sports is saying. Palm has been projecting bowls longer than pretty much anyone in college football media, so if you’re going to look at one person’s opinion on the matter of the CFB, Palm’s is the one to examine.
According to Palm, who attempts to use the same criteria the selection committee uses, Georgia would be ranked third if the CFP Top 25 was released after Week 6, behind No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Alabama. (The first official CFP ranking will be released on Oct. 31.) It’s worth noting that Palm, like the committee, is only looking at what a team has done up to this point and ignoring games still to come on the schedule. Yeah, it’s an imperfect system, but that’s how the CFP committee set it up.
How Mizzou can beat Georgia
For Georgia to get into the CFP it’s going to have to keep winning, starting this weekend with Missouri. That shouldn’t be much of a challenge as the Bulldogs enter the contest as a 30-point favorite.
We all know Connelly as the advanced stats guru of college football, but he’s also a noted Missouri fan. That means we get his expert take on Georgia-Missouri from a Tigers fan’s perspective over at Rock M Nation. Because of his expertise, Connelly doesn’t look at this game through rose-colored glasses, but he does give us an idea of what Mizzou would need to do to pull off the upset:
“Defensive coaches will tell you they want the offense to have to play left-handed: force them out of Plan A, and if they beat you with Plan B, so be it.
Because of Missouri’s weaknesses in pass defense, Plan B will probably work just fine for [Jake] Fromm and Georgia. But if you can’t stop Plan A, you’re going to lose by 40. Mizzou’s only chance is to get linebackers Terez Hall and Cale Garrett and linemen such as Terry Beckner Jr. into the backfield against the run, sell out in the box, and hope Fromm misfires on a couple of deep shots. It probably won’t work, but there might not be a better option.”
How to recruit a tailback
Georgia has the most-talented stable of running backs in college football. It also has a commitment from 5-star 2018 recruit Zamir White and is in hot pursuit of another top tailback prospect, James Cook of Miami. So, how does coach Kirby Smart keep getting players to sign to play in this crowded backfield?
It’s simple: Look at the game tape.
“You just turn on the tape of the last game and say, ‘Do you want to be one of those guys? Or do you want to be one of the guys that’s pass-[protecting] for everybody else in the country?’ They’re throwing there,” said Smart, according to Seth Emerson of DawgNation.
Mark Fox to donate money for every fan at November home games
Georgia men’s basketball coach Mark Fox is giving fans a reason to come to Georgia hoops games this November, aside from wanting to watch the Dawgs play in the newly renovated Stegeman Coliseum. For every fan who attends the games against Bryant (Nov. 10), South Carolina-Upstate (Nov. 14), and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Nov. 19), Fox and his wife, Cindy, will donate $1 to either the Clarke County Mentor Program or the Athens Boys & Girls Club.
— Mark Fox (@coachmarkfox) October 12, 2017
So, this November you can help some important causes by showing up to watch Georgia hoops. That sounds like a good deal to me.
Dawgs on Twitter
— Georgia Football (@FootballUGA) October 13, 2017
— Georgia Football (@FootballUGA) October 13, 2017
Georgia LB Roquan Smith is as solid as they come in coverage. pic.twitter.com/sB2LAlODTa
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) October 11, 2017
“Every position is a competition.”
— Georgia Football (@FootballUGA) October 12, 2017
when u a puppy and wanna play with everything pic.twitter.com/imOapNkHiA
— Cute Emergency (@CuteEmergency) October 12, 2017
Miss a previous edition of Good Day, UGA? Get caught up here.