The Friday Five: Georgia should win (yes, we’ve said that before)
DATELINE, BEAUTIFUL CLAYTON, GA., ON THE WAY TO KENTUCKY – Georgia faces a reckoning as it travels to its second-to-last SEC game of the season. A victory stops the bleeding, and gives the Bulldogs a chance to finish the season with at least a respectable record. A loss sends the reeling Bulldogs into an uphill match-up next week, staring down the real possibility of missing a bowl.
So, no pressure.
Here are five predictions about Saturday night’s game:
1. GEORGIA WILL RUSH THE BALL …
Between 35-40 times. That’s basically twice as much as it did against Florida (19 times, including sacks and scrambles) butt would still be on the low end this season. (Georgia rushed 35 times against Vanderbilt, the second-least, and the third-least was 38 times at Missouri.) Basically, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel’s plea to Jim Chaney on Monday will be answered, though it’s worth pointing out the gameplan is usually set on Sundays, so Chaney probably looked at Kentucky’s ninth-ranked SEC rushing defense and decided balance is necessary. However, there’s still only so much Georgia can do with deficient blocking and a quarterback still learning how to run an offense, which includes audibling when the defense is showing its about to sell out for the run. So the feeling here: Georgia will run the ball more, and will run the ball better … but not like it did against North Carolina or South Carolina. Think more like the Tennessee game (181 rushing yards on 46 carries.)
2. JACOB EASON WILL …
Have a good night. Kentucky ranks a pedestrian eighth in the SEC in pass defense (224.8 yards per game) but has given up the second-most passing touchdowns (14). It also doesn’t have Florida’s talent in the secondary. (Nobody does.) The best guess: Eason finishes with 225-250 passing yards, which would be his third-most of the season.
3. KENTUCKY’S OFFENSE WILL …
Run the ball well, while the key passing will be third downs and no interceptions. Yes, Georgia’s run defense is its strength (third in the SEC), but Kentucky will statistically be the bests rushing offense in the SEC it’s seen this year. The Wildcats, who rank fifth at 219.5 yards per game, look legit in that phase. They’re very weak passing the ball, so this is where the chess match will be: Does Georgia stack the box, and does Kentucky try to burn them with some early-down passes?
4. EACH TEAM’S TURNOVER MARGIN WILL …
Get closer to even. Georgia enters plus-six for the season, Kentucky at minus-9. Call it just a gut feeling, perhaps leaning a bit too much on regression to the mean and each team’s direction, but this stat may not go Georgia’s favor on Saturday night.
5. THE WINNER OF THE GAME WILL BE …
Georgia. And don’t be shocked if it’s by more than just a field goal. When you look at the match-ups, it favors Georgia. So does each team’s talent level. But the reasons to favor Kentucky are compelling too: Momentum, having much more to play for, and a night game for a fan base that should be excited (for once) about football. That may be enough to carry the Wildcats. But – and doing this has failed me before this season – I still side with Georgia’s talent and match-up advantages.
