INGLEWOOD, Calif. — Georgia coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs are two-touchdown favorites over TCU for many reasons, not the least of which is the talent differential.
But beyond the 5-star count, Georgia has also been one of the best-coached and most-prepared teams in college football.
Smart, however, has told the public and his football team that nothing is to be assumed regardless of the outside perception entering into the CFP Championship Game at 7:30 p.m. on Monday at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
“Probability is not reality,” Smart said. “Reality is what happens between those lines.”
What happens in the coaching box and along the sidelines, however, is the first of three keys for the Bulldogs’ victory over the Horned Frogs in the CFP Championship Game.
1. Coaching advantage
Smart has said the 3-3-5 defense TCU plays is difficult to prepare for, to the extent he compared it to a triple option offense.
“I can’t say enough about what they do because what they do is so different, you can’t simulate it,” Smart said. “I associate it to being a triple option offense. When you go play them you can’t do what they do as good as they do it. We’re trying to do what they do on our defense. It’s completely different.
“It’s a concern because they’re unique in what they do and they gave Michigan some problems in what they do.”
Georgia, however, has won 16 games in a row when Smart and his Georgia teams have had more than a week of preparation for a game. It’s a streak that dates back to the loss to Texas in the Sugar Bowl following the 2018 season.
The Bulldogs had the highest paid coaching staff in the SEC at the start of the 2022 season.
2. Cornerstone defense
Yes, Georgia has surrendered 71 points and more than 1,000 yards in the past two games — a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game, and a 42-41 CFP Peach Bowl win over Ohio State
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But Smart is 57-1 at Georgia when the Bulldogs score more than 30 points — the only loss coming on Josh Dobbs’ Hail Mary pass in a Tennessee win at Sanford Stadium in 2016.
TCU surrendered 30 or more points five times this season, ranking 64th in the nation in scoring defense (26.43 allowed per game).
3. Turnover awareness
Smart knows that avoiding turnovers will be big, and that’s why he told Stetson Bennett after the win over Ohio State that he needs to play within the system after a poor read led to an interception that set up the Buckeyes for a 21-7 lead.
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Georgia has turned the ball over two times or more — and had a -2 or more turnover differential — in each of their most recent six losses dating back through the loss to Texas in the Sugar Bowl following the 2018 season.
The Bulldogs have a minus-2 turnover differential on the season.
Georgia is trying to become just the second team in the post-BCS era (1998) to win a national title with a negative turnover differential — Clemson did it with a minus-1 turnover differential in 2016. Every other national champ was plus-4 or better.
