Some of college football’s traditional powerhouses will be holding their collective breaths when the next set of CFP rankings come out at 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
Those rankings, as determined by the 13-member selection committee, likely will cast the die for teams not competing in their respective league championship games.
Georgia, 11-1 and preparing to play Alabama (10-2) in the SEC championship game at 4 p.m. on Saturday in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, is safely in the field.
The Bulldogs, with a win over the Tide, would get a bye and likely end up in the Sugar Bowl CFP quarterfinal on Jan. 1 against a first-round winner. The Sugar Bowl gets the highest-ranked league champ from the SEC or Big 12.
A Georgia loss to Alabama could drop UGA into hosting a first-round game on Dec. 19 or Dec. 20 at Sanford Stadium.
The No. 10-ranked Tide (10-2), which survived a 27-20 win over Auburn on Saturday, has an outside shot at landing a first-round bye with a win over the Bulldogs depending on how high it’s ranked on Tuesday night.
Alabama, even should it fall to UGA and suffer a third loss, is expected to make the field. The committee set a precedent last season of not dropping losing championship game teams in the rankings beneath teams that did not play that weekend.
The final set of rankings will come out at noon on Sunday, Dec. 7, and provide the seedings for the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.
Per the CFP protocol, “the committee’s task will be to select the best teams” through a process that considers:
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents
• Relevant factors, such as unavailability of key players and coaches,
The top-four seeds will get byes, while teams seeded No. 5 through No. 12 will play first-round games at campus sites on Dec. 19 and Dec. 20.
“I think this will be the toughest year the committee has,” ABC commentator and College GameDay analyst Kirk Herbstreit said on Saturday night, “when you look at teams like Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas.”
Indeed, Carson Beck’s No. 12-ranked Hurricanes beat current-No. 9 Notre Dame head-to-head in both teams’ season-opening game, 27-24, and have the same 10-2 record.
The Irish, however, have been ahead of Miami throughout the CFP rankings and many expect they will stay there after closing the regular season with a 49-20 win over Stanford Saturday night.
“You’re talking about a (Notre Dame) team that is playing as well as anyone right now, won 10 straight games, all of them by double-digit points,” Irish coach Marcus Freeman said. “Who are the best teams now? Not Week One, now.”
Of the top 10 teams, No. 8 Oklahoma was perhaps the least impressive with a 17-13 home win over a 7-5 LSU team playing with an interim head coach that’s lost four of its past six games.
The Sooners or No. 9-ranked Notre Dame figure to hold the final at-large bids after league championship games are played unless jumped in the rankings.
Miami won’t have the opportunity to play Virginia in the ACC championship game for a potential automatic bid, as Duke won the tiebreaker among the five league teams that finished with a 6-2.
That leaves the Hurricanes completely dependent on landing an at-large berth to make the 12-team field.
Miami coach Mario Cristobal believes his team should jump high enough in the rankings to receive a CFP bid after the Hurricanes scored a 38-7 road win at No. 22 Pitt on Saturday.
“We’ve got great players in all phases and we’re playing great football in all phases,” Cristobal said in his on-field TV interview. “The best part about football is you get to settle it on the field where head-to-head is always the No. 1 criteria for anything regarding athletics and football.”
Texas, after scoring a statement win over No. 3-ranked and previously unbeaten Texas A&M, is hoping the selection committee will consider its wins over ranked opponents this season, too.
The Longhorns’ 27-17 win over the Aggies prevented Texas A&M from appearing in what would have been their first-ever SEC championship game since joining the league in 2012.
Texas hopes to jump from No. 16 into consideration for an at-large bid after its third win over a team ranked in the top 10 when they played them.
The Longhorns scored wins over current-No. 14 Vanderbilt (34-31), and perhaps most notably, current-No. 8 Oklahoma by a 23-8 score in the teams’ neutral-site rivalry.
Coach Steve Sarkisian pleaded his program’s case after defeated the Aggies on Friday night.
“That team was undefeated, the No. 3 team in the country, a lot of the pundits think they are the No. 1 team in the country, we just beat them by 10,” Sarkisian said in his on-field interview. “If you look at the body of work .... and you look at the non-conference schedule we played and go to Ohio State in Week One and lose by seven, when we out-gained them by nearly 200 yards, we have a really good football team.
“It would be a disservice to our sport if this team is not a playoff team when we went and scheduled that non-conference game, because if we’re a 10-2 team, there’s not a question.”
The CFP announced before the season the selection committee would use enhanced strength of schedule metrics when determining the weekly rankings.
The SEC, in moving to a nine-game league schedule next season, assured its coaches strength of schedule would be more heavily considered by the selection committee.
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz is among the coaches who challenged the assertion, based on how the CFP rankings have played out to this point.
“We have teams that played against each other, they both have the same record, and we don’t count that as a factor,” Drinkwitz said, pointing to Notre Dame being ranked ahead of Miami. “I mean, I don’t know what to tell people.”
There will be plenty of talk on Tuesday night, to be sure, when the CFP selection committed deals out the rankings, with only championship game left with games to play.
Projected CFP field seeds, games
First-round byes
1 Ohio State (projected Big Ten title game winner)
2 Indiana
3. Georgia (projected SEC title game winner)
4. Texas Tech (projected Big 12 title game winner)
First round matchups
On campus sites, Dec. 19-20
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Tulane (highest-ranked Group of Six champion)
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Virginia (projected ACC title game winner)
No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Alabama
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Quarterfinals
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. Winner of No. 5 Oregon-No. 12 Tulane
No. 1 Ohio State vs. Winner of No. 9 Notre Dame-No. 8 Oklahoma
No. 3 Georgia vs. Winner of No. 6 Texas A&M-No. 11 Virginia
No. 2 Indiana vs. Winner of No. 7 Ole Miss-No. 10 Alabama
Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl, 7:30 p.m. Jan. 8 teams TBD
Peach Bowl, 7:30 p.m. Jan. 9 teams TBD
CFP Championship Game
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla, Jan. 19
How the CFP Top 25 fared
1 Ohio State (12-0)
Won at No. 15 Michigan, 27-9
2. Indiana (12-0)
Won at Purdue, 56-3
3. Texas A&M (11-1)
Lost at No. 16 Texas, 27-17
4. Georgia (11-1)
Won at No. 23 Georgia Tech, 16-9
5. Texas Tech (11-1)
Won at West Virginia, 49-0
6. Oregon (11-1)
Won at Washington, 26-14
7. Ole Miss (11-1)
Won at Mississippi State, 38-19
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
Defeated LSU, 17-13
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
Won at Stanford, 49-20
10. Alabama (10-2)
Won at Auburn, 27-20
11. BYU (11-1)
Defeated UCF, 41-21
12. Miami (10-2)
Won at No. 22 Pitt, 38-7
13. Utah (10-2)
Won at Kansas, 31-21
14. Vanderbilt (10-2)
Won at No. 19 Tennessee, 45-24
15. Michigan (9-3)
Lost to Ohio State, 27-9
16. Texas (9-3)
Defeated No. 3 Texas A&M, 27-17
17. USC (9-3)
Defeated UCLA, 29-10
18. Virginia (10-2)
Defeated Virginia Tech, 27-7
19. Tennessee (8-4)
Lost to No. 14 Vanderbilt, 45-24
20. Arizona State (8-4)
Lost to Arizona, 23-7
21. SMU (8-4)
Lost at California, 38-35
22. Pitt (8-4)
Lost to No. 12 Miami, 38-7
23. Georgia Tech (9-3)
Lost to No. 4 Georgia, 16-9
24. Tulane (10-2)
Defeated Charlotte, 27-0
25. Arizona (9-3)
Won at No. 20 Arizona State, 23-7
