The so-called “ceiling” for most every Georgia football team coached by Kirby Smart has been the national championship.
But the “floor” — that is, the worst-case scenario — has been consistent the past nine years.
The Bulldogs’ trend under Smart suggests UGA won’t lose more than three games.
After all, that has only happened once in Smart’s 10-year tenure, and that was his first season when UGA went 8-5 included losses to …. (Gasp) Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech.
The Commodores and Yellow Jackets are on this season’s UGA schedule, too, but they wouldn’t seem to pose the biggest threats to upset the Bulldogs.
Georgia is projected to be favored in all of its games, per ESPN’s preseason FPI Power Index.
Per that computer-based formula, the Bulldogs closest games will be against Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Florida.
High-Threat Games
At Alabama, Oct. 10
The Bulldogs have already been installed as 2.5-point road favorite over Alabama in that Oct. 10 game, but the odds hardly matter when one considers Georgia has been the favorite over the Tide in the previous six meetings and only won twice.
Bryant-Denny Stadium is one of two SEC stadiums Smart will lead the Bulldogs into where he has yet to win as Georgia’s head coach.
At Ole Miss, Nov. 7
Ole Miss’ Vaught Hemingway Stadium is the other SEC stadium UGA plays in this season where Smart has yet to lead a Bulldogs’ team to victory.
The Rebels, featuring returning quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, are No. 9 in the AP preseason Top 25 under first-year coach Pete Golding.
The Georgia-Ole Miss game is so far off it’s hard to say what kind of shape the Bulldogs or Rebels will be in, with attrition a factor in the rough-and-tumble SEC.
Based on the CFP Sugar Bowl Quarterfinal last season, the Rebels are certainly an upset threat.
Realistic Threat
Vs. Oklahoma Sept. 26
Oklahoma brings back six primary starters to its defense along with quarterback John Mateer, who was the Heisman Trophy favorite last September before suffering a broken bone in his thumb.
The game is at Sanford Stadium on Sept. 26, so the home crowd is sure to help the Bulldogs.
Vs. Florida, Oct. 31
The Gators will open this season with a first-year head coach in John Sumrall, who was hired away from Tulane after leading the Green Wave into the 12-team College Football Playoff last season.
Many of the Florida fans who were disappointed when Lane Kiffin declined their head coach opening have changed their tune, as Sumrall has unified the fan base and seemingly ignited offseason momentum in Gainesville.
Sumrall went 20-8 in his two seasons at Tulane after winning back-to-back Sun Belt Conference championships at Troy with a cumulative 23-4 record.
As is, the Gators were only a couple of plays away from upsetting Georgia in Jacksonville, Fla., last season with an interim staff.
It would seem a four-loss season would be Georgia’s floor, with the aforementioned games the most likely losses.
To be clear, that’s not the prediction from this seat, as an 11-1 regular season record would seem more in order.
But for the sake of discussion, as things stand, those are the four games that jump out.
