ATHENS — The proverbial NCAA tournament “Bubble” doesn’t get any bigger, any riper or any more applicable than the recent ESPN projections have it for Georgia.
These Bulldogs, Coach Mike White’s third version of them, are a “50 percent” prospect to make what would be their first NCAA tournament in 10 years after beating LSU on Wednesday night.
“The Bulldogs do have an 8-7 mark against top-100 opponents, and they are in the top 40 in SOR (strength of record),” per the latest ESPN pay site “bubble watch” story.
“But the ESPN forecast is lower on Georgia than other models, even after their odds rose to 50 percent with a convincing win against LSU on Wednesday.
“No matter the forecast, everyone can agree the Dawgs need to make a strong closing argument to finish out their SEC schedule.”
That starts for Georgia (16-7, 4-6 SEC) at 6 p.m. on Saturday in Stegeman Coliseum against Mississippi State (16-6, 4-5).
The No. 22-ranked Maroon Bulldogs, with the week off after a glaring 88-61 home loss to No. 15 Missouri, are just as desperate for spark as Georgia.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently has 13 SEC teams projected to make the 68-team field — which would eclipse the current conference record of 11 set by the Big East — with UGA No. 13 in that order.
Lunardi has Georgia projected as a No. 10 seed that would play No. 7 seed Oregon after the play-in games are complete
Georgia is 13-1 on its home court this season with notable wins over Kentucky and Oklahoma, and a 2-point loss to No. 1-ranked Auburn.
“It’s going to take us playing one of our best games,” Mississippi State coach Chris Jans told the Columbus (Miss.) Dispatch. “They’re playing with a lot of confidence, especially in their building. They’re not an over-complicated team.”
Auburn coach Bruce Pearl noted that Georgia plays “some of the best 2-point field goal defense” the Tigers have seen this season.
The stats bear that out, with UGA fourth in the league in scoring defense (70.7) and fourth in the league in field goal percentage defense (41.3)
“They just try to play fundamental, sound basketball,” Jans said. “They’re very physical on both ends of the floor.”
Jans noted the presence of Georgia freshman Asa Newell, a projected first-round NBA draft pick.
“It’s remarkable how mature (Newell) is as a basketball player,” Jans said. “He’s obviously developed physically and mentally, and he’s very skilled and very comfortable on the court.
“They have a lot of good players, like everybody else does in this league, but it starts with him at the top.”
That might seem like a lot to put on a freshman, but as Jans’ notes, Georgia has plenty of other firepower and toughness.
It’s certainly a battled-tested team, as six of UGA’s eight games in January were against Top 25 opponents -- while six of Georgia’s seven games in February are against current Top 25 teams.
That experience will certainly be put to the test against Mississippi State, which ranks fourth in the league in blocked shots (5.33 per game) and fourth in the league in steals (8.22 per game).
A Georgia win won’t take UGA off the bubble — not with a Tuesday night road trip to No. 10 Texas A&M on deck followed by a home game against No. 15 Missouri on Feb. 15, a trip to No. 1 Auburn on Feb. 22 and a Feb. 25 home date with No. 6 Florida.
But Georgia can get a Quad 1, head-to-head win over a team they are competing with for a spot in the Big Dance, and gain valuable momentum in the fluid, ever-important NET ranking metrics race.
Here is how ESPN “Bubble Watch” rates SEC teams chances of making NCAA tourney
(Georgia remaining games vs. teams in bold)
Auburn 100 percent
Alabama 100 percent
Tennessee 100 percent
Florida 97 percent
Texas A&M 96 percent
Kentucky 92 percent
Texas 89 percent
Ole Miss 82 percent
Mississippi State 81 percent
Missouri 59 percent
Georgia 50 percent
Oklahoma 46 percent
Arkansas 41 percent
Vanderbilt 18 percent
LSU 14 percent
South Carolina 3 percent
