Preseason polls are an inexact science. with teams ranked by perception of how good they are going to be.
But how good when?
Are pollsters voting based on how good teams are right now before the season starts — or perhaps where they think teams will finish in the final poll?
My answer: both.
And, how much of a team’s ranking is based on program history, versus number of returning starters — or perhaps, impact of portal recruits and/or true freshmen?
My answer: all of the above.
It is to each their own when it comes to poll methodology, and yet, preseason polls often set expectations.
Voting in a poll is a task for the serious-minded, to be sure, with the AP Top 25 ballots scrutinized weekly.
Is anyone else surprised that two-time defending SEC champ Georgia didn’t receiver any of the 69 voters preseason No. 1 votes?
In fact, no SEC team received a preseason No. 1 vote, which were distributed as follows: Ohio State (40), followed by Oregon (14), Indiana (8), Notre Dame (6) and Miami (1).
There’s a graphic showing how each pollster voted which also calculates which of the AP Top 25 voters rank as the biggest outliers from the norm of how the poll actually shook out.
It’s an interesting concept that even more fascinating when applying it to a preseason poll which has very little basis.
That said, it was interesting to conduct a self-review of which teams I had ranked much higher — or much lower — than the final preseason ranking.
Mike Griffith Preseason Top 25 ballot
Under-ranked?
Washington
I have the Huskies at No. 24, but they came out ranked No. 17. It might seem like a low ranking until one realizes Washington was left completely off of seven others’ preseason ballots.
The Huskies didn’t finish last season ranked in the AP Top 25, either, but Demond Williams Jr. is back as their starting quarterback and third-year head coach Jedd Fisch has his culture in place.
Washington has a schedule that’s conducive to a 4-0 start, so there’s a good chance it will move up into the mid-teens by the time the Huskies play at USC on Oct. 3.
The regular season slate ends with games at home against Indiana and at Oregon, and that’s when reality will set in, for better or worse.
Ole Miss
I have the Rebels at No. 15, but they came out at No. 9 on the preseason AP Top 25.
Full confession: I have questions about Pete Golding as a head coach. Golding proved he could maintain the momentum Lane Kiffin built going into the College Football Playoffs last season, but can he reload and build a team culture?
One voter left the Rebels completely off their Top 25 ballot, while another had Ole Miss at No. 18.
Ole Miss can prove me wrong when it plays host to LSU on Sept. 19, but the Rebels better not overlook Louisville in their opener.
Michigan
Michigan is No. 21 in my AP Preseason Top 25 poll in the same slot it finished last season in the AP poll.
It was a tumultuous offseason for the Wolverines with drama playing out around former head coach Sherrone Moore and a mad scramble that led to 66-year-old former Utah coach Kyle Whittingham taking over.
Still, only one AP Top 25 pollster had Michigan ranked lower than 21 (23rd), with one another person matching the 21st vote I cast.
The Wolverines can change my mind when they host Oklahoma on Sept. 12.
Over-ranked
Auburn
I have the Auburn Tigers at No. 25, but they are only 43rd among vote-getting teams.
It’s not as wide of a gulf as it might seem once you get past 26th-highest vote-getter Clemson (112 points), Florida (51), Boise State (43) and 29th-place Arizona (32).
After all, 30th-place TCU had 11 points, Navy and South Carolina had 10 and then there were 10 schools with single-digit vote-point totals.
The Tigers (3 points) can change perception quickly if they beat Florida and/or Vanderbilt at home on Sept. 19 and Sept. 26 and then win a road trip to Tennessee.
Of course, a road trip to Georgia on Oct. 17 could prove sobering, as could the Oct. 24 home date with LSU.
Auburn’s preseason ranking comes largely on the strength of this being a program that was close last season, with six of its seven losses coming by single digits.
There was only one other pollster, however, who had the Tigers on their Top 25 ballot, placing them No. 23.
Florida
It’s hard not to be bullish on the Gators after meeting Coach Jon Sumrall and getting an idea of what he’s all about.
Those who know of Sumrall’s offensive coordinator, Buster Faulkner, will also be more likely to feel good about Florida rising into the Top 25 ranks.
My ballot reflects Florida as the No. 18 team in the nation but the Gators were only 27th among vote-getting teams.
Only 14 of the 69 AP Top 25 voters had Florida ranked in their Top 25, but that could change after a 2-0 start.
Clemson +7
Coach Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are opening a season outside the Top 25 for the first time since the 2011 campaign, but not on account of this ballot.
Clemson is the No. 19 team in my rankings, even though a season-opening road trip to play LSU looks less than promising.
The Tigers can return to national prominence if they can win an Oct. 3 home game against a Miami team that figures to be untested after opening with Stanford, Florida A&M, Wake Forest and Central Michigan.
Mike Griffith Top 25 ballot
(Actual preseason Top 25 rank in parenthesis)
1. Notre Dame (4)
2. Texas (5)
3. Oregon (2)
4. Georgia (3)
5. Ohio State (1)
6. Indiana (6)
7. Miami (7)
8. LSU (11)
9. Alabama (13)
10. BYU (14)
11. Texas A&M (8)
12. USC (15)
13. Oklahoma (10)
14. Penn State (18)
15. Ole Miss (9)
16. Tennessee (20)
17. Texas Tech (12)
18. Florida (27)
19. Clemson (26)
20. SMU (19)
21. Michigan (16)
22. Iowa (22)
23. Louisville (24)
24. Washington (17)
25. Auburn (42)
