ATHENS — Georgia coach Kirby Smart is just focused on the next day of fall drills, but to no one’s surprise, the college football picture is starting to shake out around the Bulldogs.
We’re talking about expectations, of course, because the actual season doesn’t start until Iowa State and Kansas State meet in Dublin, Ireland in a noon game on Aug. 23 (TV: ESPN).
Georgia, to no one’s surprise, is among the leading favorites to win the national championship according to a recent article applying ESPN metrics.
Texas, riding the Arch Manning-inspired wave of hype, have the best odds of making the 12-team field for the College Football Playoffs (83.9 percent) and winning the national title (24.1 percent), with Georgia closely behind with a 78.6-percent chance of making the playoffs and a 17.9-percent chance of winning the national title.
Smart, of course, knows better than anyone that championships are won on grass — not paper — so such metrics mean nothing to him nor his players.
But it’s an interesting twist for Georgia, which is approaching this fall with more of an underdog mentality on account of all the new players in the program.
Indeed, there aren’t too many football programs that could lose 13 players to the NFL draft — including three first-rounders — and a two-year starting quarterback to the transfer portal (Carson Beck, Miami, Fla.) and still be considered among the juggernauts.
SEC PREVIEWS
But that’s what ESPN’s metrics suggest, with Georgia favored to win every game except its Nov. 15 home game against the Longhorns, who will have the benefit of an open week before their trip to Athens.
Heather Dinich, ESPN’s College Football Playoffs expert, emphasized the importance of a strong start to the season for Georgia.
“If Georgia can start 4-0 with wins against Tennessee and Alabama, the selection committee will remember those (games) through Selection Day,” Dinich penned. “It could also help Georgia earn a top-four sed even if the Bulldogs finish with one loss to Texas and don’t win the SEC.”
Dinich cautions that road upsets would be a blow, even with Neyland Stadium and Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium noted as particularly hostile road venues that make hearing the player next to you on the field, much less winning.
“…. but if Georgia is a true national title contender, it shouldn’t have a losing road record,” Dinich said, noting that Mississippi State is the only other true road game, as the battle with Florida is in Jacksonville, and not Gainesville.
Here are ESPN’s odds for the Top 25 national championship contending teams, 11 of which reside in the SEC:
(SEC teams in boldface type)
1 Texas 83.9% playoffs, 24% win CFP
2 Georgia 78.6% playoffs, 17.9% win CFP
3 Ohio State 70.6% playoffs, 10.8% win CFP
4 Alabama 66.2% playoffs, 10.8% win CFP
5 Penn State 63.8% playoffs, 7% win CFP
6 Oregon 57.5% playoffs, 4.3% win CFP
7 Clemson 47.3% playoffs, 2.8% win CFP
8 Miami, Fla. 46.3% playoffs, 2.7% win CFP
9 Notre Dame 45.6% playoffs, 2.7% win CFP
10 Tennessee 38.5% playoffs, 2.3% win CFP
11 Texas A&M 34.3% playoffs, 2.3% win CFP
12 Ole Miss 30.7% playoffs, 1.5% win CFP
13 LSU 30.3% playoffs, 2.1% win CFP
14 Michigan 25.3% playoffs, 1% win CFP
15 Boise State 25.2% playoffs, 0.1% win CFP
16 Tulane 24.3% playoffs, 0.2% win CFP
17 Kansas State 22.2% playoffs, 0.4% win CFP
18 Auburn 21.8% playoffs, 1.1% win CFP
19 UNLV 21.3% playoffs, 0.1% win CFP
20 SMU 21.1% playoffs, 0.5% win CFP
21 USC 21% playoffs, 0.4% win CFP
22 South Carolina 20.3% playoffs, 1% win CFP
23 Oklahoma 18.4% playoffs, 0.8% win CFP
24 Arizona State 16.1% playoffs, 0.2% win CFP
25 Florida 14.5% playoffs, 0.7% win CFP
