ATLANTA — Miami survived North Carolina and is positioned to be atop the first College Football Playoff rankings when they are released on Tuesday night.
The Hurricanes’ 38-35 win over Coach Bill Belichick’s unranked Tar Heels(4-4) in Chapel Hill was ugly, as Miami barely out-gained North Carolina, 416-407 and trailed 28-24 in the fourth quarter.
But it should be enough to keep Miami at No. 1 with the ratings game of transitive properties, quality wins and recency bias begins in earnest with the first set of College Football Playoff rankings coming out at 7 p.m. on Tuesday (TV: ESPN).
The final rankings come out at noon on Dec. 6 and will set the 12-team CFP field.
The CFP Selection Committee will be showing an early hand in how it collectively values schedule strength and factors-in impact injuries when the rankings come out.
Ohio State’s ranking holds the highest intrigue after the Buckeyes’ fell among two-loss teams with a 30-18 loss to USC in its first game without starting quarterback Julian Sayin, who is out for the season.
Ohio State has been a fixture in the CFP picture, but that could change depending on how the committee considers its current state with a freshman quarterback and its early-season head-to-head loss at Texas.
Does the CFP dare leave the Buckeyes out of the projected field — meaningless as it is at the point of the season?
Georgia impressed in a 27-8 win over No. 17 Florida, racing to a 24-0 lead at halftime and not allowing the Gators to score until there was less than seven minutes left to play.
The Bulldogs (7-1) should be No. 2 unless the CFP committee deems Utah’s perfect 8-0 record playing out of the Big 12 more impressive than UGA’s mark amid the rugged SEC slate.
Utah and Georgia do share a common opponent in Arkansas, but the respective scores and venues make that a virtual wash; the Utes won at home 43-10, while UGA won on the road 45-17.
UCLA’s unblemished 8-0 mark could be enough for the Bruins to move past Indiana in the polls and open higher in the CFP rankings than Indiana.
The Hoosiers (8-1) have four Big Ten wins by one score or less, including the most recent, a 23-16 win over Minnesota (5-3) that representing their second overtime victory of the season.
The fact Indiana replaced starting quarterback Josh Hoover, who has been playing with a shoulder injury, could lead to an even deeper drop.
Kentucky shouldn’t be any lower than sixth, as its only loss came to a Top 10 Alabama team, albeit 45-17, the second week of the season.
The Wildcats have won six-straight since then, including overtime wins over LSU (6-2) at home and on the road against South Carolina (5-3).
BYU’s loss to UCF looks a lot worse after the Knights laid an egg in a 41-9 home loss to Baylor (5-3) on Saturday.
But the Cougars head-to-head win over Notre Dame (7-1) should keep BYU ahead of the Irish.
Notre Dame’s aesthetics aren’t the best, as its only win over a team ranked in the polls is Wisconsin, and the No. 25 Badgers will surely fall out after a 30-0 loss to Iowa on Saturday.
The Irish held a slim 14-13 half-time lead at Navy before pulling away for a 35-13 win on Saturday.
Notre Dame will have the opportunity to prove its legitimacy to all — and take a major leap in the rankings — when it plays host to No. 1 Miami on Saturday.
Unraveling the two-loss SEC teams might prove the most controversial challenge for the committee, with Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Missouri all at 6-2.
Alabama has the most impressive win of the six teams in the SEC’s two-loss “pod,” winning decisively over Kentucky and could get style points for playing Georgia toe-to-toe in a 20-17 loss.
Ole Miss and Texas each have two wins in the games the pod teams have played against one another, but the Longhorns beat the Rebels head-to-head 34-27 and have an out-of-conference win over a healthy Ohio State team that was ranked No. 1 at the time.
Ole Miss’ home win over LSU gives it a leg up on Lane Kiffin’s Tigers with the two-loss pod this week.
Tennessee can make its case with a 26-10 win over an Alabama team coming off a physical loss to UGA, but the Vols lost at home to Texas, giving the Longhorns the head-to-head advantage.
The SEC’s version of separation Saturday is up next, as Texas plays at Missouri, Alabama plays at LSU, Kentucky plays at Tennessee and Georgia plays at Ole Miss this week.
Big 12 leader Texas Tech (7-1) and ACC challenger Wake Forest (7-1) should benefit from the SEC cannibalism, provided the Red Raiders take care of business at home against West Virginia and the Demon Deacons dominate Merrimack on Saturday.
Boise State (7-1), playing out of the new-fangled Pac-12, projects as the top Group of Six school at the moment, as its been ranked in the polls throughout the season.
New Mexico (7-1), out of the Mountain West, has been sending press releases to voters to make its case, but computer metrics indicate Boise State has played a better schedule to this point.
Here’s how the CFP rankings should look on Tuesday night:
1. Miami (8-0)
2. Georgia (7-1)
3. Utah (8-0)
4. UCLA (8-0)
5. Indiana (8-1)
6. Kentucky (7-1)
7. BYU (7-1)
8. Notre Dame (7-1)
9. Alabama (6-2)
10. Texas (6-2)
11. Ole Miss (6-2)
12. Boise State (7-1)
Based on the above rankings, here is how the bracket would look:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami
No. 2 Georgia
No. 3 Utah
No. 4 UCLA
First-round games
(On campus, Dec. 18 and 19)
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
No. 11 Ole Miss at No 6 Kentucky
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 BYU
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Here is how Mike Griffith voted in the AP Top 25 poll this week:
1. Miami (8-0)
Won at North Carolina, 38-35
2. Georgia (7-1)
Beat No. 17 Florida, 27-8
3. Utah (8-0)
Won at Cincinnati, 49-25
4. UCLA (8-0)
Beat Nevada, 27-0
5. Indiana (8-1)
Beat Minnesota, 23-16 (OT)
6. Kentucky (7-1)
Did not play
7. BYU (7-1)
Beat Arizona State, 27-20
8. Notre Dame (7-1)
Won at Navy, 35-13
9. Alabama (6-2)
Did not play
10. Texas (6-2)
Beat Mississippi State, 31-3
11. Ole Miss (6-2)
Beat Auburn, 45-14
12. LSU (6-2)
Did not play
13. Ohio State (6-2)
Lost at USC, 30-18
14. Tennessee (6-2)
Did not play
15. Texas Tech (7-1)
Beat Arizona, 34-26
16. Wake Forest (7-1)
Beat Virginia, 51-7
17. Houston (6-2)
Did not play
18. Missouri (6-2)
Won at Arkansas, 34-10
19. Iowa (6-2)
Beat No. 25 Wisconsin, 30-0
20. USC (7-2)
Beat Ohio State, 30-18
21. South Carolina (5-3)
Won at Oklahoma, 42-25
22. Arizona (6-2)
Lost at No. 13 Texas Tech, 34-26
23. Northwestern (6-2)
Lost at Oregon, 34-26
24. Boise State (7-1)
Beat Texas State, 46-45
25. Florida (5-3)
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 27-8
