ATHENS — The College Football Playoff picture cleared up on Saturday, but there are still plenty of questions left to be answered.
The respective league championship games have sorted themselves out, and now it will be up to the CFP Selection Committee to find a logical order to rank the teams on Tuesday night.
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Here are the ESPN projected rankings, and the teams’ next game status:
1. Oregon (12-0) next: vs. Penn State Big Ten title game
2. Texas (11-1) next: vs. Georgia SEC title game
3. Penn State (11-1) next: vs. Oregon Big Ten title game
4. Notre Dame (11-1) next: will host CFP first-round game
5. Georgia (10-2) next: vs. Texas SEC title game
6. Ohio State (10-2) next: first-round CFP game
7. Tennessee (10-2) next: first-round CFP game
8. SMU (11-1) next: vs. Clemson ACC title game
9. Indiana (11-1) next: possible first-round CFP game
10. Boise State (11-1) next MWC title game vs. UNLV
11. Miami (10-2) next: possible first-round CFP game
12. Alabama (9-3) next: possible first-round CFP game
13. Ole Miss (9-3) next: possible first-round CFP game
14. South Carolina (9-3) next: possible first-round CFP game
15. Arizona State (10-2) next: Big 12 title game vs. Iowa State
16. Iowa State (10-2) next: Big 12 title game vs. Arizona State
17. Clemson (9-3) next: ACC title game vs. SMU
18. BYU (10-2) next: bowl game
19. Missouri (9-3) next: bowl game
20. UNLV (10-2) next: Mountain West title game vs. Boise State
21. Colorado (9-3) next: bowl game
22. Illinois (9-3) next: bowl game
23. Syracuse (9-3) next: bowl game
24. Memphis (10-2) next: bowl game
25. Texas A&M (8-4) next: bowl game
Here are some key questions:
1. How far will the league championship game losers fall?
Warde Manuel, the CFP Committee chairman, has said the committee will recognize the value of teams that made it to their respective league championship games. But Manuel also said that how teams play in those league title games will be part of the equation when the teams are evaluated for the final rankings.
That means its possible a team like Georgia, which could finish with three losses should it not win the SEC title game, could fall beneath a two-loss Tennessee that it beat head-to-head. Or it might not.
2. Will schedule strength kick in?
The SEC has three 3-loss teams — Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina — that are arguably better than teams that figure to get in because they have built better won-loss records by playing in lesser conferences (Indiana and Miami, most notably).
Notre Dame’s win over USC likely guarantees the Irish will host a first-round playoff game in South Bend, Ind., taking up one of the “at-large” spots.
The top-five ranked conference title game winners — Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five (Mountain West) — have guaranteed spots.
The top four ranked of those five conference title game winners will be seeded in the top-four and get first-round byes.
Of the conference champs, the one that’s ranked fifth among them (likely the Big 12 championship game winner) be among the 5th through 12th-seeded teams that will play on Dec. 20-21.
As noted, Notre Dame will be in that 5-12 group ) and play an on-campus first-round game.
3. The at-large spots
With five conference champs and Notre Dame in the field of 12, that leaves six at-large spots.
Ohio State (10-2), Tennessee (10-2) and Indiana (11-1) figure to get three of those six at-large spots, based on projected rankings.
The Big Ten Championship Game loser (Oregon or Penn State) and the SEC Championship Game loser (Georgia-Texas) figure to get to of those three remaining at-large spots.
So who gets the last spot between: Miami (10-2), Alabama (9-3), Ole Miss (9-3), South Carolina (10-3) and possibly SMU (currently 11-1) if it were to lose the ACC title game to Clemson?
The CFP rankings show, at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, will provide more clues as to the ultimate answers, which will be revealed with the final rankings on Dec. 8.
