ATHENS — Steve Spurrier has a pretty good idea why Alabama is having a tough time replacing Nick Saban.

“Whoever they get next, I give him two to three years,” Spurrier said, asked about the appreciable coaching vacancy seven-time national championship coach Nick Saban left behind when he resigned on Wednesday.

“Then the next guy after that might turn it around.”

Coaches and agents know it’s hard to replace a legend. The idea, several coaches have said in chats about the Alabama opening, is to be the “next guy after the next guy.”

Replacing legends

A look at the coaches who took on enormous expectations by following championship coaches at Florida — Spurrier and Urban Meyer —provides some evidence of the risk.

Ron Zook, the next coach up at Florida after Spurrier, lasted only three seasons (2002-04) with a 37-23 record.

Will Muschamp, who was next in line after Meyer from 2011-14, was 28-21 coaching the Gators over our seasons.

Jamey Chadwell, who turned in a 13-1 season at Liberty this season following Hugh Freeze’s successful run there, explained the challenge.

“It’s by far harder to take over a winning program, because they’ve won there before, and they’ve won a different way than you are doing it,” said Chadwell, who led the Flames to a league title and New Year’s Six Bowl in their first season in Conference USA.

“It takes more time for them to trust your way of doing things.”

What about Dabo

Oregon coach Dan Lanning was Alabama’s top choice, per one source close to the program.

Lanning, however, declined interest in the Crimson Tide job just as quickly as he ruled himself out of the running for the Texas A&M job earlier this season.

Two-time national championship coach Dabo Swinney, a former Alabama player and coach, is believed to have interest in the job.

Sources close to the program say the “new” Alabama administration has been reluctant to consider Swinney, part of the Tide’s ‘old guard’ headed by Hall of Famer Gene Stallings in the 1990s.

Young guns

There were many who believed Houston Texans’ head coach DeMeco Ryans would ultimately be Saban’s replacement.

But then the 39-year-old Ryans had so much success in the NFL this season that the Alabama job no longer makes sense.

One source close to the program said earlier this season that the Tide’s leadership was particularly impressed with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, and that one day he might be head coach.

Rees, however ,is just 31 years old and has been at Alabama just one year. Further, Rees has never been a head coach.

History lesson

As great as Saban’s success made the Alabama job appear, there was a time before him when the program struggled to replace Stallings.

Indeed, five coaches held the title of Alabama head coach between the end of Stallings’ tenure in 1996 and the start of Saban’s in 2007.

Tennessee football is another cautionary tale, as Phillip Fulmer’s first-ballot College Football Hall of Fame career with the Vols led many Big Orange fans into thinking anybody could win there.

Fulmer was fired in 2008 — one year removed from making his fifth SEC Championship Game appearance in 11 years.

Tennessee hasn’t been back in the SEC title game in the 16 years since then.

The next coach who followed Fulmer was Lane Kiffin, who stayed only one year. — long enough to get sideways into an NCAA investigation that clouded Derek Dooley’s three-tenure as Tennessee head coach.

Spurrier’s closing thought

Spurrier, who continued to torment the Vols while head coach at South Carolina, including a 3-0 mark versus Dooley, said Saban’s announcement did not catch him off guard.

“It wasn’t surprising for Coach Saban to retire, he’s done it long enough, and college coaching isn’t as much fun as when I was in there,” said Spurrier, who went 3-1 against Saban in head-to-head games, beating him twice at Florida when Saban was at LSU, and splitting with him at South Carolina after Saban had taken over at Alabama.

“We had an offseason when I was coaching. It’s year-around now, and then you’ve got that transfer portal and all that NIL to deal with.”

Spurrier noted Saban was aware of the soaring expectations, which would have likely continued to mount as Alabama failed to win a national title the past three seasons.

“I was taking to Coach (Saban) one time,” Spurrier said, “and he told me if he lost three games in a season, hell would break loose.”

Things at Alabama are starting to appear just as shaky as the coaching search lingers on.