ATHENS — ESPN Analytics is saying it made an error in earlier projections.
But not that much of a mistake in predicting Georgia a distance No. 5, it turns out.
Author Seth Walder explained that some digits were off this spring when the first set of Football Power Index (FPI) numbers projecting rankings, playoff chances and national championship percentages were released.
The FPI conclusion that Alabama and Clemson are the two top favorites remains the same, however.
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“Alabama is, in FPI’s view, the best team in the country,” Per Walder. “Even without Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith, Alabama is expected to have a top-3 three offense with Bryce Young at the helm, and a top-two defense ... only behind Clemson.”
Georgia, meanwhile, is ranked No. 5 in the FPI, with “a big drop-off” behind top four teams Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State.
ESPN’s FPI explanation is the limited sample of work from quarterback JT Daniels, a fourth-year sophomore who played the entire 2018 season at USC before suffering a knee injury in the 2019 opener that carried into his transfer year at UGA last season.
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According to the ESPN FPI article:
“Part of the reason for the gap with perception here is that while FPI knows how well JT Daniels played in his four games for the Bulldogs last season - his QBR of 89.1 would have only trailed Mac Jones, Fields and Matt Corral had he maintained that pace for an entire season -- it won’t anoint anyone over a sample that small. If that was the real Daniels we saw last season, Georgia’s offensive FPI rank will surely move up from its current spot at No. 13.”
So then, wouldn’t that same logic apply to Alabama QB Bryce Young and Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei, too?
Young has 22 career pass attempts for the Tide, while Uiagalelei has 117 attempts and just two starts for the Tigers, producing a 1-1 record.
“As it stands now though,” the ESPN FPI article continues, “we project Georgia to have a 1-in-4 chance to reach the CFP and just a 4% shot to win the national championship.”
